The European Commission launched an antitrust probe into Oracle’s acquisition of Sun.  EU Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes expressed concerns about whether MySQL would continue to get traction under Oracle’s ownership.

Matt Asay makes the point that the EC’s “meddlesome muddling reveals a surprising ignorance of open source, and shows a complete disregard for MySQL’s true market opportunity”.  He argues that MySQL will continue to thrive, no matter which choices Oracle makes, and provides as proof some popular MySQL forks.

Matt Aslett said in a recent tweet “Oracle’s (potential) control of MySQL is not about the license but copyright (not that the EC seems to understand that).”

They are both right: Oracle cannot kill MySQL, even if they wanted to.

But they can hurt it badly.

Try something.  Type “open source database” in Google. Your results may vary depending on where you are located and your browser language, but chances are MySQL will appear in the sponsored links at the top (in my results, I also had EnterpriseDB).

Now, think about what will happen when Oracle says “spending freeze on online advertising”.  Or when Larry Elison says “the Google guys have a bigger airplane than me – no more money for them” (since Larry Page and Sergey Brin own a Boeing 767, that’s a real possibility…)

MySQL – the company – has been investing heavily in the promotion of MySQL – the database.  And this contributed a lot to the adoption of the technology. I am not saying the MySQL project will die without marketing. But it will loose traction, and another leader will emerge.  Will it be a MySQL fork/derivative, or another open source database?  I don’t know.

I am not sure that the EC has the right reasons in mind for investigating the deal.  But they are right, Oracle can badly damage MySQL.

Yves

UPDATE: Matt Aslett expanded his thoughts on copyright ownership on the 451 CAOS Theory blog, explaining that “Oracle’s impending ownership of MySQL could theoretically have a significant impact on the emerging market for commercial products based on MySQL and their ability to compete with the Oracle Database.”   Another element to consider.

Is the EU right in blocking the deal but for the wrong reasons – because they don’t get it?